Consider this the most contrarian prediction.

Apple’s iPhone will likely bomb.

Yes, I know America loves Apple. Silicon Valley loves Apple. All my Los Angeles friends and many writers love Apple.

But let’s look at the data, the dynamics, and timing.

First, consumer confidence is beginning to falter.

Toyota Tundra (yes another great company and brand) can’t sell their new Tundra truck right now, and is having to dig into the incentive bucket for help.

Timing for the Tundra and other large non-need purchases (hint iPhone) is not good.

Consumers are beginning to pull back as interest rates and Bernanke get more volatile, and mortgage defaults come at an all-time high.

Timing. Not good.

Now let’s look at the data. Several years back, I was frothy for Apple’s newest phone, the ROKR, only to be disappointed. Not a good phone, not a good music device according to the reviews. And certainly not good sales results.

Yes the ROKR was primarily a Motorola device, and who’s to know who’s to blame–Apple or Motorola. But the bottom line is that Apple has a sour record for developing phones.

The hype happened…and I doubt that Apple can recreate the buzz and the news upon launch.

My Pulitzer prize-winning father with 50 years in the Journalism business taught me many things about the news industry, but one that’s pretty critical is this. News is new only once. Once it’s old, it’s not new…thus not newsworthy.

Now Apple will definitely find itself on the front pages upon launch of the iPhone, but half the buzz is gone.

And for $499 and $599, the price-point for a device doing the same thing as a RIM Blackberry Pearl or Blackberry 8800? I’m swimming against the tide, but I’m predicting lower than expected sales for the iPhone.

Fashion you say? Fashion will sell the phone.

Fashion is very “in the moment” and the moment will be about six months long gone upon release.

Superior technology and design you say? First time out for a device like this on Apple’s part–and remember the ROKR. Sales will be below expectations.

Perhaps I’ll be proven wrong.

Perhaps Richard Gardner at Citigroup and Andrew Neff at Bear Sterns will say “Told you so…you were wrong.”

But data, dynamics (of buzz and consumer culture), and timing, show me a bucket of expensive Apple iPhones sitting in the orchard…with fewer people biting than expected.

Mark Hughes is a marketing speaker, consultant, and author of the book Buzzmarketing: Get People to Talk About Your Stuff.

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